Another nice weekend
Synopsis: A deep marine layer is currently presiding over our region with a well-mixed near-surface layer. Marine layer clouds have been more persistent, lasting into the early afternoon on Thursday and Friday. So, if I told you Saturday should be mostly clear and warmer, you probably wouldn’t believe me. A change is on the way, however. We will be switching to a warmer and drier setup through Saturday, October 22 with morning low clouds clearing early and temperatures possibly breaking 80°F for inland Irvine….Yes, another weak offshore flow. This weak offshore flow will be brief, ending on Sunday morning. Winds are not expected for Orange County. Warm temperatures are still likely for Sunday. Cooler weather will take over on Monday and Tuesday.
The big story: Our first widespread, cold Santa Ana wind event could arrive sometime early Wednesday morning (October 26). Due to the fact that this event is still several days away, there is a great amount of uncertainty. However, I have been following it closely and will continue to update on any changes as we approach the onset. This offshore event has brief and only moderate upper-level support Wednesday afternoon and evening. The thermal gradient arrives Wednesday morning but, probably isn’t maximized until Wednesday night. So, winds could start in the inland mountain passes sometime early Wednesday morning. Winds are possible in Orange County late Wednesday morning or afternoon and could be moderate in strength, at most. However, the strongest winds for Orange County will probably not occur until Wednesday evening/Thursday morning when the thermal gradient is maximized.