Sprinklers or Not?

Spring Thundershowers

mtosca — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 05:06:09 +0000

SoCal was feeling left out of all the spring thunderstorms across the country and mother nature has decided to oblige us with some heavy showers/thunder of our own tonight. Radar echoes show a strong subtropical-in-origin storm spinning toward us tonight. Heavy rain will begin falling before midnight across much of Orange County, with possible thunder and lightning before dawn. Should be a fun night listening to the wind and rain pitter-pattering on the rooftops. All told, we should get about 1″ from this storm. Much needed, that’s for sure:

-Mike

Much Needed Rain Headed Our Way

Scott — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 01:25:29 +0000

A spring storm will bring rain to Orange County Tuesday night (sprinkles or a brief shower) and Wednesday evening (the main event, moderate to heavy showers with thunder). Late Wednesday night/before sunrise Thursday, we could have some thundershowers.

Wednesday’s storm

Scott — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 16:57:50 +0000

Another spring storm will target southern California on Wednesday. Heavy rain and thunder are a possibility with this system as it taps into a plume of moisture from the south.

Heavy Rain, embedded thunder

mtosca — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 19:23:10 +0000

Heavy rain showers with embedded t-storms are approaching from the NW, and should be in the Irvine area by 2pm or so. Here’s an image showing the progression:

Rain rates could possibly exceed 1″/hr

-Mike

Rain, thunder, lightning?

mtosca — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 14:18:51 +0000

In what could potentially be the last storm of the season, rain and thunderstorms will inundate SoCal today. Light rain has been falling in the region since last night (as suggested in my previous post). Rain intensity should pick up as the main bands approach from the northwest; see this radar image from 7am:

Reds and oranges in this image indicate very high rain rates, possibly associated with some embedded thunderstorms. Satellite data also shows numerous lightning strikes near Santa Barbara with the larger band of rain. Model simulations indicate “high” (for SoCal) CAPE values suggesting that the convective activity will continue right on into our area. These storms, and strong winds, will sweep through OC sometime around noon-2pm today, tapering off tonight.

-Mike

Last Rain of the Season?

mtosca — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 18:40:31 +0000

Wednesday’s storm was unusual, and tonight/tomorrow’s storm will be even more unusual. It’s highly improbable that two major winter storms hit SoCal during the month of April! Especially during a year as dry as this one has been. Season to date, Los Angeles has received only 7.70″ of rain (55% of average), and Irvine only 5.63″ (45% of average). Nevertheless, here we are, with another big storm on our doorstep.

Here’s a satellite image showing the clouds gathering in the Eastern Pacific:

Light rain out ahead of a warm front should spread into our region around midnight tonight, continuing through the morning and picking up in intensity as the cold front approaches sometime during the late morning tomorrow. Rain should begin to taper off as we head into tomorrow afternoon with only showers continuing at night. I’m expecting upwards of an inch from this entire system. Not enough to push us above normal, but enough to help alleviate some of the drought situation we are rapidly sliding into.

Stay posted for more updates tomorrow!

-Mike

April Rain Expected

Scott — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 14:04:16 +0000

April showers could begin early Wednesday morning (around sunrise) for Orange County with cold temperatures. Showers could continue into the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Rainfall accumulations could exceed 0.30″.

Rain beginning mid-day Sunday

Scott — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 15:52:43 +0000

A band of light to moderate showers was off our coast moving slowly towards us as of Sunday morning around 8:50am. This band should bring light to moderate showers and moderate southerly winds beginning around 1pm for Orange County. Temperatures will peak in the low-60s by noon. Wind gusts exceeding 20mph are possible between noon and 3pm. The real story is the more intense comma cloud behind this band. This could bring a decent amount of rain with thunder late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Accumulations between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning could exceed 0.50″.

Sunday, cold and partly cloudy

Scott — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 18:01:47 +0000

We almost hit 0.50″ at my location (inland Irvine). Storm total was 0.48″ just short of our prediction (see earlier post). Sunday will be cold, windy with partly cloudy skies. A brief shower is not out of the question Sunday morning. Showers will continue in the mountains throughout the day. Gusty winds (to 25mph) with inland showers are possible Sunday afternoon.

March showers bring….

mtosca — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 14:03:52 +0000

…much needed rain to a very dry Southern California? Today the southland is getting its biggest storm of the year, which is very unusual (though not impossible) for this late in the season. A broad and vigorous long-wave trough has been digging south and west across the Pacific all week. Many of you noticed the days becoming gradually cooler, and gradually clouder in anticipation of this rain event. As I write this, the main area of activity is now just on our doorstep. Here’s a radar image showing the first main band of rain just to our north, plowing southward:

That main front should pass through sometime between 9am and 2pm (as Scott suggested). Models suggest that showers will continue to fill in behind the front through the afternoon and into the overnight. That’s when things get interesting — as upper level temperatures plummet, our chances for thunderstorms increases, and snow levels drop to potentially 2,500 feet in some areas – which would bring snow down very low in the Santa Ana Mountains. That stuff is more likely to happen tonight into tomorrow (Sunday).

Stay tuned with us all weekend

-Mike